, 2003b, De Bernardi and Giussani, 1990 and Otten et al., 2012). In contrast,

in East Taihu, where water quality is still relatively good, large individuals (e.g. Gastropoda) live in relatively low numbers as these species can hide from predators between macrophytes and have access to a relatively high food quality (e.g. periphyton and high-quality detritus) ( Cai et al., 2012). Also fish are affected by the anthropogenic pressures. Large fish species almost disappeared from Taihu mainly due to overexploitation Quizartinib concentration by fisheries, which is amplified by construction of flood protection dams and the destruction of spawning grounds by land reclamation ( Guan et al., 2011, Li, 1999 and Li et al., 2010). Also the exposure to different pollutants (e.g. DDT, POP and heavy metals) and the resulting bioaccumulation could have forced a decline in fish stocks ( Feng et al., 2003, Rose et al., 2004 and Wang et al., 2003). Obviously, the safe operating space (cf. Rockström et al., 2009) with respect to e.g. nutrient cycles, land use and freshwater use needed for a healthy ecosystem in Taihu has been transgressed. While at first, water quality was negatively affected by the anthropogenic pressures, now human development is hampered by low water quality (Guo, 2007). According to the Chinese standards, which are based on physical and chemical parameters, acceptable drinking water has

a total phosphorus concentration lower than 0.1 mg/l and total nitrogen concentration lower than 0.5 mg/l. Standards for biological parameters are not included in the Chinese Sotrastaurin classification; but, according to the European Water Framework Directive, the chlorophyll-a concentration (depending on the

lake type) should not exceed ~ 30 μg/L in order to ensure acceptable drinking water quality (Altenburg et al., 2007). At present, all these standards are exceeded at least some months during the year (TBA, 2014). Today, Taihu can be roughly divided into three zones: the Bortezomib cell line wind-shaded phytoplankton blooming zone (north and west of the lake), the wind-disturbed phytoplankton blooming zone (lake centre), and the shallow wind-shaded macrophyte dominated zone (south-eastern part of the lake) (Cai et al., 2012 and Zhao et al., 2012b). The development of Taihu reveals how the size effect, spatial heterogeneity and internal connectivity had its effect upon this spatial zonation. The water quality model PCLake (Janse et al., 2010) is used forbifurcation analyses for different values of depth and fetch, to illustrate the possibility of alternative stable states in lakes (see Electronic Supplementary Materials ESM Appendix S1). In Fig. 9, the model generated grey domain indicates the possible existence of alternative stable states for a hypothetical set of lakes using the general PCLake settings (omitting horizontal exchange between lake compartments).